The leak of classified US and Nato documents on Ukraine’s military and its much-anticipated spring counter-offensive is part of a Russian information operation and does not reveal Kyiv’s actual operational plans, a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.
The documents, seen by the Financial Times, are around five weeks old and appear to have first leaked on social networking site 4chan before spreading to Telegram and Twitter.
The US department of defence said on Friday that it was investigating reports of a new batch of classified documents being leaked online, and that it had “made a formal referral to the Department of Justice for investigation”.
Although the files do not outline specific details about Ukraine’s plans on the battlefield, they provide an insight into what Washington believes Ukraine will need to recapture territory currently occupied by Russia when Kyiv begins its counteroffensive in late April or May.
“Russia is looking for any way to seize the information initiative, to try to influence Ukraine’s counter-offensive plans, to introduce doubts, to compromise plans, to frighten [us] with their ‘awareness’,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelenskyy, in a statement on Telegram. “This is a bluff . . . this has nothing to do with Ukraine’s real plans.”
Podolyak said the documents provided only a “statistical analysis of supplies, possible operational and tactical plans, as well as a large volume of fictitious information”.
“If Russia had really received real scenario documents it would hardly have made them public,” he added. “After all, it is much more valuable to prepare your own counter-traps, while leaving the other side in ignorance of your own knowledge.”
US officials confirmed to the FT that the documents appeared to be partly authentic and were classified, but said at least one of them showed signs of being doctored.
The apparently falsified document put Russian soldiers killed in action at between 16,000 and 17,500, with the number of Ukrainian soldier deaths at around 71,500. An original of this document, also leaked online, shows between 35,500 and 43,500 troop deaths on the Russian side and between 16,000 and 17,500 for Ukraine.
The US previously estimated Russia’s overall casualties since its full-scale invasion in February 2022 at about 200,000 wounded and killed, with Ukraine’s casualties at about 100,000.
Figures for each country’s military aircraft losses appeared similarly flipped and distorted in the same leaked document.
US Department of Defense spokesperson Sabrina Singh told the FT on Thursday that the Pentagon was investigating the apparent leak. “We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter.”
The leak was first reported by the New York Times on Thursday.
One document labelled “top secret” on the “Status of the Conflict as of 1 Mar” mentions Russia’s Wagner mercenaries bearing down on the city of Bakhmut, where fighting has raged for the past 10 months in the longest running battle of Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.
Another document lists 12 combat credible brigades for Ukraine’s counter-offensive. It says nine are being trained by the US and allies, six of which will be ready on March 31, while three will be ready by April. The document also states Ukraine will have 253 tanks among other armour and material.
A western defence adviser who works with Ukraine’s army said the documents looked real, but most of the information was not sensitive and “could have been worked out”.
The documents “do not say where the [Ukrainian counter]-attack would take place or when”, he said, nor do they contain information about mobile command units.
The leak “is more embarrassing than anything”, he added.
“As for the real counter-offensive plans,” said Podolyak, “the Russian troops will certainly be the first to get acquainted with them. I would assume that will happen very soon.”
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