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China appears to be accelerating the expansion of its nuclear arsenal and may be exploring the development of non-nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the US, according to a new Pentagon report.
Beijing’s stockpile of operational nuclear warheads had reached 500 by May 2023, putting it on track to exceed previous projections, according to the report, an annual survey of Chinese military capabilities mandated by Congress. It forecast that China would probably have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.
The report added that the development of conventional, non-nuclear ICBMs “would allow the People’s Republic of China to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental US, Hawaii and Alaska.”
Despite the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, China remains the pre-eminent security threat in the minds of many American policymakers and the annual Pentagon report to Congress is closely watched by budget-setters in the White House and on Capitol Hill in order to set spending priorities.
China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal in recent years, suggesting that Beijing is moving away from its decades-old policy of having only a “lean and effective” nuclear deterrent.
A senior US defence official said China had previously refused to hold talks about nuclear weapons — known as “strategic stability talks” — because of the disparity of the size of the US and Chinese arsenals, but said the Pentagon hoped Beijing would become more willing. The US has 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads, as permitted under the New Start arms control treaty.
“As we see them building up to larger numbers, that raises some questions . . . [about] whether they might perhaps, in line with what they’ve stated previously, be more willing to be more transparent,” the official said.
The Pentagon said China was increasingly using the People’s Liberation Army as an “instrument of statecraft”, attempting more coercive actions against the US and its allies. Those activities included high-risk manoeuvres around foreign aircraft and ships, as well as discharging chaff or flares in proximity to rival aircraft. The report said China had conducted almost 300 “risky and coercive” aerial interceptions of US and allied aircraft over the past two years.
The report said Beijing was continuing to resist reopening the military-military communication channels with Washington that Beijing halted after Nancy Pelosi, the US House Speaker, visited Taiwan in August last year. After nearly two years of frosty relations between Beijing and the Biden administration, a handful of US cabinet secretaries have visited China in recent months, in a possible sign of a thaw.
The Pentagon said the PLA was exploring security strategies that would use artificial intelligence and big data to find vulnerabilities in the US that it could then target. Earlier this week, FBI director Christopher Wray and his counterparts from the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing network — the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand and Canada — warned that China was trying to steal AI technology for military purposes.
The report said China had increased the size of its navy to 370 ships and submarines, including the launch of a third aircraft carrier last year, and was the largest navy in the world. It added that the PLA Air Force was “rapidly catching up” to western air forces, including with the development of a wide range of unmanned aerial systems.
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