Bitcoin could reach a cycle high of as much as $150,000 in 2025, driven by the so-called halving event and institutional inflow brought by bitcoin exchange traded funds, which are expected to be approved soon, according to analysts at AllianceBernstein.
The recent ETF optimism has sent the largest crypto
BTCUSD,
+1.15%
above $37,000 on Friday. It rose over 120% so far this year, but is still down more than 45% from its peak in November, 2021, according to CoinDesk data.
Bitcoin’s price could be broken into four-year cycles and in each one it experiences four phases including a break-out, hype, correction and accumulation, the analysts wrote in a Friday note.
Such cycles are based on halving, an event in which block rewards given to bitcoin miners are cut in half after every 210,000 blocks are mined, or about every four years. Bitcoin has gone through three halvings in history, and the next one is expected to happen in April next year.
A new bull run would be mostly driven by institutional inflows brought by Bitcoin ETFs, the analysts noted. “We believe early flows could be slower and the build up could be more gradual, and post-halving is when ETF flows momentum could build, leading to a cycle peak in 2025 and not 2024,” the analysts wrote.
“The current BTC break-out is just simply ETF approval news getting slowly priced in and then the market monitors the initial outflows and likely gets disappointed in the short run,” according to the analysts.
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